Kazakhstan Hockey Championship · Wednesday, 28 October, MSK

Kulager — Beibarys Atyrau

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Model prediction for 28 October

Kulager59%
Draw in regulation20%
Beibarys Atyrau22%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Kulager are clear favourites: 71% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 5.2 in total, against a competition average of 6.1.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 46%.

Why

  • Kulager are more dangerous in attack: 3.1 expected goals against 2.0.

Facts

  • League table: Kulager — No. 6, 22 pts; Beibarys Atyrau — No. 9, 8 pts. A gap of 14 pts.
  • Last 5 meetings: Kulager 5 wins, Beibarys Atyrau 0.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Kulager — Beibarys Atyrau3.1–2.0
Kulager to win (incl. OT and shootout)71%
Beibarys Atyrau to win (incl. OT and shootout)29%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)46%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)54%

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Form

Kulager

  • 11.10Karaganda2:1 SO
  • 10.10Karaganda1:3
  • 07.10Kokshetau3:4
  • 06.10Kokshetau3:4
  • 02.10away · Nomad Astana4:5 SO

Beibarys Atyrau

  • 13.10away · Aktobe1:2
  • 12.10away · Aktobe1:2
  • 07.10Almaty5:3
  • 06.10Almaty1:4
  • 02.10Torpedo2:9

Head to head

  • 06.09.2026Kulager — Beibarys Atyrau2:1 SO
  • 05.09.2026Kulager — Beibarys Atyrau4:3
  • 03.02.2026Beibarys Atyrau — Kulager0:2
  • 02.02.2026Beibarys Atyrau — Kulager3:4 OT
  • 20.12.2025Beibarys Atyrau — Kulager0:7

Full record: 17 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
5, PlayoffsKaraganda18112573–44+2924
6, PlayoffsKulager1894564–52+1222
7, PlayoffsAlmaty1890949–57-818
8, PlayoffsAktobe18411345–83-389
9Beibarys Atyrau18321338–59-218
10Pavlodar18011719–140-1211

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 59% will not happen in roughly 41 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →