Belarus Extraleague (hockey) · Wednesday, 21 October, MSK

Lokomotiv Orsha — Brest

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Model prediction for 21 October

Lokomotiv Orsha23%
Draw in regulation19%
Brest58%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Brest are clear favourites: 70% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects plenty of goals: 5.6 in total, against a competition average of 5.1.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 54%.

Why

  • Brest are more dangerous in attack: 3.4 expected goals against 2.2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Lokomotiv Orsha — Brest2.2–3.4
Lokomotiv Orsha to win (incl. OT and shootout)30%
Brest to win (incl. OT and shootout)70%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)54%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)46%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

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  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Lokomotiv Orsha
  • Lokomotiv Orsha goals
  • Overtime chance
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Form

Lokomotiv Orsha

  • 11.10Neman Grodno0:1
  • 09.10Neman Grodno2:3 OT
  • 05.10away · Gomel2:5
  • 03.10away · Gomel3:4
  • 29.09Lida5:4 SO

Brest

  • 12.10Zhlobin2:3
  • 10.10Zhlobin1:4
  • 06.10away · Molodechno3:2
  • 04.10away · Molodechno2:1 OT
  • 29.09Neman Grodno4:2

Head to head

  • 25.11.2025Lokomotiv Orsha — Brest2:3
  • 23.11.2025Lokomotiv Orsha — Brest2:5
  • 07.09.2025Brest — Lokomotiv Orsha1:3
  • 05.09.2025Brest — Lokomotiv Orsha1:5
  • 18.02.2025Brest — Lokomotiv Orsha2:3 OT

Full record: 41 meetings →

Belarus Extraleague on the same day

  • 1The model's most likely outcome: 115%Model's score: 4:15.3
  • 1The model's most likely outcome: 118%Model's score: 3:14.9
  • SoligorskVitebskpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 120%Model's score: 3:15.1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 58% will not happen in roughly 42 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →