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VHL (All-Russian Hockey League) · Wednesday, 21 October, MSK

Magnitka Magnitogorsk — HC Norilsk

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Model prediction for 21 October

Magnitka Magnitogorsk56%
Draw in regulation21%
HC Norilsk22%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Magnitka Magnitogorsk are clear favourites: 69% to win including overtime and shootout.

4.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (4.7).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 34%.

Why

  • Magnitka Magnitogorsk are more dangerous in attack: 2.7 expected goals against 1.8.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Magnitka Magnitogorsk — HC Norilsk2.7–1.8
Magnitka Magnitogorsk to win (incl. OT and shootout)69%
HC Norilsk to win (incl. OT and shootout)31%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)34%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)66%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Magnitka Magnitogorsk
  • Magnitka Magnitogorsk goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Magnitka Magnitogorsk

  • 12.10away · AKM3:2
  • 10.10away · Ryazan3:4 SO
  • 02.10Bars4:2
  • 30.09Almetyevsk1:2 OT
  • 28.09CSK VVS3:0

HC Norilsk

  • 12.10Perm3:1
  • 10.10Toros Neftekamsk5:3
  • 08.10Izhevsk3:2
  • 06.10Olympia3:2
  • 01.10away · Kristall Saratov3:2 SO

Head to head

  • 05.02.2026HC Norilsk — Magnitka Magnitogorsk0:4
  • 14.10.2025Magnitka Magnitogorsk — HC Norilsk2:3
  • 12.03.2025Magnitka Magnitogorsk — HC Norilsk1:0 OT
  • 03.09.2024HC Norilsk — Magnitka Magnitogorsk5:2

Full record: 4 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
3, PlayoffsOmskie Krylia13100337–19+1820
4, PlayoffsHC Norilsk1592435–33+220
5, PlayoffsOrsk1283135–22+1319
15, PlayoffsKristall Saratov1271431–41-1015
16, PlayoffsMagnitka Magnitogorsk1154224–20+414
17Toros Neftekamsk1362530–31-114

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

VHL on the same day

  • OrskKrasnoyarskpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 2:14.0
  • AlmetyevskCSK VVSpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 119%Model's score: 4:15.3
  • DizelBuran Voronezhpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:14.3

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 56% will not happen in roughly 44 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →