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Belarus Extraleague (hockey) · Wednesday, 30 September, MSK

Mogilev — Vitebsk

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Model prediction and result

0:2Came true
Mogilev27%
Draw in regulation20%
Vitebsk52%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 0:2: the model's most likely outcome, Vitebsk to win (64% incl. overtime), came true.

Vitebsk are clear favourites: 64% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects plenty of goals: 5.6 in total, against a competition average of 5.1.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 53%.

Why

  • Vitebsk are more dangerous in attack: 3.2 expected goals against 2.4.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Mogilev — Vitebsk2.4–3.2
Mogilev to win (incl. OT and shootout)36%
Vitebsk to win (incl. OT and shootout)64%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)53%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)47%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Mogilev
  • Mogilev goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Mogilev

  • 28.09Vitebsk4:3
  • 23.09away · Soligorsk1:4
  • 21.09away · Soligorsk0:3
  • 18.09Yunost Minsk5:3
  • 16.09Yunost Minsk2:3

Vitebsk

  • 28.09away · Mogilev3:4
  • 24.09Lokomotiv Orsha4:1
  • 22.09Lokomotiv Orsha3:0
  • 18.09Novopolotsk4:2
  • 16.09Novopolotsk3:2 OT

Head to head

  • 28.09.2026Mogilev — Vitebsk4:3
  • 18.01.2026Vitebsk — Mogilev6:2
  • 16.01.2026Vitebsk — Mogilev3:2
  • 14.10.2025Mogilev — Vitebsk0:5
  • 12.10.2025Mogilev — Vitebsk1:5

Next matches

  • SlavutychVitebsk3 October · Belarus Extraleague
    1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 6:3. Model's score: 4:1.4.8
  • LidaMogilev4 October · Belarus Extraleague
    1The most likely outcome came true: 118%Final score 6:0. Model's score: 4:2.6.2

Belarus Extraleague on the same day

  • BaranavichyYunost Minsk
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 218%Final score 5:0. Model's score: 1:4.5.2
  • SlavutychSoligorsk
    1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 5:1. Model's score: 4:1.5.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 52% will not happen in roughly 48 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →