NHL · Sunday, 1 November, MSK
Montreal Canadiens — Pittsburgh Penguins
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 1 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Close to a coin flip: Montreal Canadiens 50%, Pittsburgh Penguins 50% including overtime.
5.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (6.0).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 61%.
Why
- The teams are almost level on expected goals: 3.0 and 2.9.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Montreal Canadiens — Pittsburgh Penguins | 3.0–2.9 | |
| Montreal Canadiens to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 50% | |
| Pittsburgh Penguins to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 50% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 61% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 39% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Montreal Canadiens
- Montreal Canadiens goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 14.10Buffalo Sabres4:3 SO
- 11.10Detroit Red Wings1:0 SO
- 09.10Nashville Predators2:5
- 07.10Carolina Hurricanes4:6
- 04.10away · Pittsburgh Penguins5:6 OT
- 14.10away · Chicago Blackhawks3:5
- 11.10Dallas Stars2:1 SO
- 10.10away · Columbus Blue Jackets2:3 SO
- 08.10away · Washington Capitals3:5
- 06.10Winnipeg Jets2:3
Head to head
- 04.10.2026Pittsburgh Penguins — Montreal Canadiens6:5 OT
- 22.12.2025Pittsburgh Penguins — Montreal Canadiens4:3 SO
- 21.12.2025Montreal Canadiens — Pittsburgh Penguins4:0
- 12.12.2025Pittsburgh Penguins — Montreal Canadiens2:4
- 13.12.2024Montreal Canadiens — Pittsburgh Penguins2:9
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Florida Panthers | 7 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 15, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Pittsburgh Penguins | 7 | 3 | +3 | 7 |
| 16 | St. Louis Blues | 6 | 3 | +3 | 7 |
| 17, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Toronto Maple Leafs | 7 | 3 | +1 | 7 |
| 18 | Montreal Canadiens | 6 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 19 | Buffalo Sabres | 7 | 3 | -7 | 7 |
NHL on the same day
- Vancouver CanucksToronto Maple Leafspreliminary44562The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:56.1
- Dallas StarsColumbus Blue Jacketspreliminary59411The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 4:15.4
- Colorado AvalancheCalgary Flamespreliminary81191The model's most likely outcome: 117%Model's score: 5:26.2
- Carolina HurricanesWinnipeg Jetspreliminary67331The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 4:15.4
- Washington CapitalsMinnesota Wildpreliminary51491The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 4:15.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →