NHL · Saturday, 31 October, MSK

Nashville Predators — Tampa Bay Lightning

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Model prediction for 31 October

Nashville Predators30%
Draw in regulation23%
Tampa Bay Lightning47%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Tampa Bay Lightning are favourites: 60% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 5.4 in total, against a competition average of 6.0.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 52%.

Why

  • Tampa Bay Lightning are more dangerous in attack: 3.0 expected goals against 2.5.

Facts

  • League table: Nashville Predators — No. 22, 6 pts; Tampa Bay Lightning — No. 13, 8 pts. A gap of 2 pts.
  • Last 5 meetings: Nashville Predators 1 win, Tampa Bay Lightning 4.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Nashville Predators — Tampa Bay Lightning2.5–3.0
Nashville Predators to win (incl. OT and shootout)40%
Tampa Bay Lightning to win (incl. OT and shootout)60%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)52%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)48%

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Form

Nashville Predators

  • 14.10Vegas Golden Knights2:5
  • 11.10away · Ottawa Senators2:3 SO
  • 09.10away · Montreal Canadiens5:2
  • 07.10away · Toronto Maple Leafs4:5 OT
  • 04.10Dallas Stars2:1

Tampa Bay Lightning

  • 14.10away · New York Rangers1:4
  • 11.10away · New York Islanders5:3
  • 09.10Minnesota Wild3:2
  • 06.10Philadelphia Flyers4:1
  • 04.10Washington Capitals3:1

Head to head

  • 30.03.2026Tampa Bay Lightning — Nashville Predators3:2
  • 29.10.2025Nashville Predators — Tampa Bay Lightning2:5
  • 29.11.2024Nashville Predators — Tampa Bay Lightning2:3 OT
  • 29.10.2024Tampa Bay Lightning — Nashville Predators3:2 OT
  • 08.12.2023Nashville Predators — Tampa Bay Lightning5:1

Full record: 20 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
12, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conferenceAnaheim Ducks640220–17+38
13, Playoffs: top 3 in each divisionTampa Bay Lightning640217–16+18
14, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conferenceFlorida Panthers732219–20-18
21Washington Capitals630319–18+16
22Nashville Predators622216–19-36
23New Jersey Devils630316–22-66

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

NHL on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 47% will not happen in roughly 53 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →