AHL (American Hockey League) · Thursday, 5 November, (UTC+3)
Ontario Reign — San Jose Barracuda
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 5 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Ontario Reign are favourites: 57% to win including overtime and shootout.
5.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.8).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 57%.
Why
- Ontario Reign are more dangerous in attack: 3.1 expected goals against 2.7.
Facts
- League table: Ontario Reign — No. 10, 6 pts; San Jose Barracuda — No. 31, 2 pts. A gap of 4 pts.
- San Jose Barracuda: 3 defeats in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Ontario Reign 1 win, San Jose Barracuda 4.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Ontario Reign — San Jose Barracuda | 3.1–2.7 | |
| Ontario Reign to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 57% | |
| San Jose Barracuda to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 43% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 57% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 43% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Ontario Reign
- Ontario Reign goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 15.10away · San Diego Gulls3:2
- 12.10away · Coachella Valley Firebirds3:2 OT
- 04.10Coachella Valley Firebirds2:6
- 03.10away · Coachella Valley Firebirds6:5 OT
- 10.05Coachella Valley Firebirds2:3 OT
- 14.10Calgary Wranglers4:6
- 11.10Tucson Roadrunners1:4
- 10.10Tucson Roadrunners4:7
- 05.10San Diego Gulls5:4 OT
- 04.10San Diego Gulls1:5
Head to head
- 01.01.2026Ontario Reign — San Jose Barracuda4:5
- 28.12.2025San Jose Barracuda — Ontario Reign0:3
- 22.12.2025Ontario Reign — San Jose Barracuda3:6
- 21.12.2025Ontario Reign — San Jose Barracuda3:4 SO
- 16.11.2025San Jose Barracuda — Ontario Reign4:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts | P% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Cleveland Monsters | 4 | 3 | +2 | 6 | .750 |
| 10 | Ontario Reign | 4 | 3 | -1 | 6 | .750 |
| 11 | Grand Rapids Griffins | 5 | 3 | +4 | 7 | .700 |
| 30 | Providence Bruins | 5 | 1 | -5 | 2 | .200 |
| 31 | San Jose Barracuda | 5 | 1 | -11 | 2 | .200 |
| 32 | Chicago Wolves | 4 | 0 | -17 | 0 | .000 |
AHL on the same day
- Grand Rapids GriffinsTexas Starspreliminary61391The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.4
- Hamilton HammersToronto Marliespreliminary47532The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:46.2
- Hershey BearsHartford Wolf Packpreliminary61391The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.5
- Laval RocketLehigh Valley Phantomspreliminary63371The model's most likely outcome: 120%Model's score: 4:25.6
- Rochester AmericansCleveland Monsterspreliminary55451The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.8
- Coachella Valley FirebirdsColorado Eaglespreliminary47532The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:35.3
- Iowa WildRockford IceHogspreliminary52481The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 3:25.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →