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Kazakhstan Hockey Championship · Thursday, 29 October, MSK

Pavlodar — Aktobe

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Model prediction for 29 October

Pavlodar9%
Draw in regulation11%
Aktobe80%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Aktobe are clear favourites: 88% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects plenty of goals: 7.1 in total, against a competition average of 6.1.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 75%.

Why

  • Aktobe are more dangerous in attack: 4.9 expected goals against 2.1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Pavlodar — Aktobe2.1–4.9
Pavlodar to win (incl. OT and shootout)12%
Aktobe to win (incl. OT and shootout)88%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)75%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)25%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Pavlodar
  • Pavlodar goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Pavlodar

  • 12.10away · Torpedo0:8
  • 11.10away · Torpedo0:13
  • 08.10Aktobe0:6
  • 07.10Aktobe2:5
  • 02.10away · Karaganda0:9

Aktobe

  • 13.10Beibarys Atyrau2:1
  • 12.10Beibarys Atyrau2:1
  • 08.10away · Pavlodar6:0
  • 07.10away · Pavlodar5:2
  • 03.10away · Gornyak Rudny1:7

Head to head

  • 08.10.2026Pavlodar — Aktobe0:6
  • 07.10.2026Pavlodar — Aktobe2:5
  • 16.01.2026Aktobe — Pavlodar9:4
  • 15.01.2026Aktobe — Pavlodar4:1
  • 19.12.2025Pavlodar — Aktobe0:1

Full record: 17 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
7, PlayoffsAlmaty1890949–57-818
8, PlayoffsAktobe18411345–83-389
9Beibarys Atyrau18321338–59-218
10Pavlodar18011719–140-1211

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Kazakhstan Championship on the same day

  • TorpedoNomad Astanapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.5
  • Gornyak RudnyKokshetaupreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:35.4
  • KaragandaAlmatypreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 115%Model's score: 4:15.8
  • KulagerBeibarys Atyraupreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 120%Model's score: 3:15.2

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 80% will not happen in roughly 20 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →