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Belarus Extraleague (hockey) · Wednesday, 30 September, MSK

Slavutych — Soligorsk

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Model prediction and result

5:1Came true
Slavutych42%
Draw in regulation22%
Soligorsk36%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 5:1: the model's most likely outcome, Slavutych to win (53% incl. overtime), came true.

Close to a coin flip: Slavutych 53%, Soligorsk 47% including overtime.

5.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.1).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 43%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.6 and 2.4.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Slavutych — Soligorsk2.6–2.4
Slavutych to win (incl. OT and shootout)53%
Soligorsk to win (incl. OT and shootout)47%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)43%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)57%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Slavutych
  • Slavutych goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Slavutych

  • 28.09Soligorsk4:3 SO
  • 23.09away · Yunost Minsk4:1
  • 21.09away · Yunost Minsk5:3
  • 18.09away · Baranavichy6:0
  • 16.09away · Baranavichy8:4

Soligorsk

  • 28.09away · Slavutych3:4 SO
  • 23.09Mogilev4:1
  • 21.09Mogilev3:0
  • 18.09away · Lokomotiv Orsha7:1
  • 16.09away · Lokomotiv Orsha8:1

Head to head

  • 28.09.2026Slavutych — Soligorsk4:3 SO
  • 11.04.2026Slavutych — Soligorsk1:0
  • 09.04.2026Soligorsk — Slavutych3:2 OT
  • 07.04.2026Slavutych — Soligorsk2:1 OT
  • 05.04.2026Slavutych — Soligorsk3:2

Next matches

  • SlavutychVitebsk3 October · Belarus Extraleague
    1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 6:3. Model's score: 4:1.4.8
  • SoligorskBaranavichy3 October · Belarus Extraleague
    1The most likely outcome came true: 112%Final score 4:2. Model's score: 4:1.5.9

Belarus Extraleague on the same day

  • MogilevVitebsk
    2The most likely outcome came true: 220%Final score 0:2. Model's score: 1:4.5.6
  • BaranavichyYunost Minsk
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 218%Final score 5:0. Model's score: 1:4.5.2

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →