KHL · Thursday, 5 November, (UTC+3)
Sochi — Cherepovets
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 5 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Cherepovets are clear favourites: 71% to win including overtime and shootout.
5.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.2).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 44%.
Why
- Cherepovets are more dangerous in attack: 3.1 expected goals against 2.0.
Facts
- League table: Sochi — No. 22, 6 pts; Cherepovets — No. 4, 22 pts. A gap of 16 pts.
- Cherepovets: 5 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Sochi 0 wins, Cherepovets 5.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Sochi — Cherepovets | 2.0–3.1 | |
| Sochi to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 29% | |
| Cherepovets to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 71% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 44% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 56% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Sochi
- Sochi goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 12.10away · Bars Kazan3:2
- 09.10Spartak Moscow0:2
- 07.10Spartak Moscow2:5
- 03.10Nizhny Novgorod0:6
- 30.09Salavat Ufa6:3
- 15.10Lokomotiv Yaroslavl5:2
- 13.10SKA St. Petersburg2:0
- 10.10away · Bars Kazan4:1
- 08.10away · Nizhny Novgorod3:2
- 06.10away · SKA St. Petersburg5:2
Head to head
- 26.09.2026Cherepovets — Sochi3:1
- 21.01.2026Sochi — Cherepovets4:5 OT
- 25.12.2025Cherepovets — Sochi4:3 OT
- 06.11.2025Sochi — Cherepovets4:5 OT
- 09.10.2025Cherepovets — Sochi3:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Lokomotiv Yaroslavl | 15 | 11 | +12 | 22 |
| 4, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Cherepovets | 16 | 10 | +7 | 22 |
| 5, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Nizhny Novgorod | 14 | 9 | +15 | 19 |
| 21 | Lada | 16 | 2 | -34 | 8 |
| 22 | Sochi | 14 | 3 | -30 | 6 |
KHL on the same day
- Avangard OmskCSKA Moscowpreliminary51491The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 2:14.2
- MagnitogorskNiznekamskpreliminary71291The model's most likely outcome: 119%Model's score: 3:15.3
- ShanghaiDynamo Moscowpreliminary42582The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 1:34.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 58% will not happen in roughly 42 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →