KHL · Wednesday, 4 November, (UTC+3)
Spartak Moscow — Lokomotiv Yaroslavl
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 4 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Lokomotiv Yaroslavl are favourites: 56% to win including overtime and shootout.
The model expects few goals: 4.3 in total, against a competition average of 5.2.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 30%.
Why
- The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.0 and 2.3.
Facts
- League table: Spartak Moscow — No. 8, 18 pts; Lokomotiv Yaroslavl — No. 3, 22 pts. A gap of 4 pts.
- Spartak Moscow: 3 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Spartak Moscow 1 win, Lokomotiv Yaroslavl 4.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Spartak Moscow — Lokomotiv Yaroslavl | 2.0–2.3 | |
| Spartak Moscow to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 44% | |
| Lokomotiv Yaroslavl to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 56% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 30% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 70% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Spartak Moscow
- Spartak Moscow goals
- Overtime chance
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Form
- 14.10away · Khabarovsk2:1
- 09.10away · Sochi2:0
- 07.10away · Sochi5:2
- 04.10Barys Astana3:4 SO
- 02.10Magnitogorsk0:2
- 15.10away · Cherepovets2:5
- 10.10Dinamo Minsk6:1
- 05.10away · Bars Kazan2:0
- 03.10away · Dinamo Minsk3:4
- 30.09Novosibirsk3:1
Head to head
- 01.04.2026Lokomotiv Yaroslavl — Spartak Moscow3:2
- 30.03.2026Spartak Moscow — Lokomotiv Yaroslavl0:2
- 28.03.2026Spartak Moscow — Lokomotiv Yaroslavl3:4 OT
- 26.03.2026Lokomotiv Yaroslavl — Spartak Moscow1:2 OT
- 24.03.2026Lokomotiv Yaroslavl — Spartak Moscow5:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | CSKA Moscow | 15 | 12 | +23 | 24 |
| 3, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Lokomotiv Yaroslavl | 15 | 11 | +12 | 22 |
| 4, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Cherepovets | 16 | 10 | +7 | 22 |
| 7, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Niznekamsk | 15 | 8 | +9 | 18 |
| 8, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Spartak Moscow | 15 | 8 | +9 | 18 |
| 9, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Shanghai | 13 | 8 | +3 | 17 |
KHL on the same day
- VladivostokSKA St. Petersburgpreliminary44562The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:35.4
- NovosibirskBars Kazanpreliminary39612The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:34.6
- Tractor ChelyabinskBarys Astanapreliminary66341The model's most likely outcome: 120%Model's score: 4:25.3
- Salavat UfaLadapreliminary72281The model's most likely outcome: 120%Model's score: 3:15.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →