NHL · Tuesday, 6 October, MSK · Benchmark International Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning — Philadelphia Flyers
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
4:1Came true
In short
Final score 4:1: the model's most likely outcome, Tampa Bay Lightning to win (58% incl. overtime), came true.
Tampa Bay Lightning are favourites: 58% to win including overtime and shootout.
The model expects few goals: 5.1 in total, against a competition average of 6.0.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 47%.
Why
- Tampa Bay Lightning are more dangerous in attack: 2.8 expected goals against 2.4.
Facts
- Philadelphia Flyers: 5 defeats in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Tampa Bay Lightning 4 wins, Philadelphia Flyers 1.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Tampa Bay Lightning — Philadelphia Flyers | 2.8–2.4 | |
| Tampa Bay Lightning to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 58% | |
| Philadelphia Flyers to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 42% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 47% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 53% |
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- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Tampa Bay Lightning
- Tampa Bay Lightning goals
- Overtime chance
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Form
- 04.10Washington Capitals3:1
- 02.10away · New York Rangers1:5
- 04.05Montreal Canadiens1:2
- 02.05away · Montreal Canadiens1:0 OT
- 30.04Montreal Canadiens2:3
- 04.10Carolina Hurricanes2:3 OT
- 02.10away · New Jersey Devils2:3 OT
- 01.10Pittsburgh Penguins0:7
- 10.05Carolina Hurricanes2:3 OT
- 08.05Carolina Hurricanes1:4
Head to head
- 13.01.2026Philadelphia Flyers — Tampa Bay Lightning1:5
- 11.01.2026Philadelphia Flyers — Tampa Bay Lightning2:7
- 25.11.2025Tampa Bay Lightning — Philadelphia Flyers3:0
- 18.03.2025Tampa Bay Lightning — Philadelphia Flyers2:0
- 14.03.2025Philadelphia Flyers — Tampa Bay Lightning4:3 SO
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Anaheim Ducks | 6 | 4 | +3 | 8 |
| 13, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Tampa Bay Lightning | 6 | 4 | +1 | 8 |
| 14, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Florida Panthers | 7 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 29 | Chicago Blackhawks | 7 | 2 | -12 | 4 |
| 30 | Philadelphia Flyers | 8 | 0 | -21 | 3 |
| 31 | Los Angeles Kings | 5 | 0 | -10 | 2 |
Next matches
- Tampa Bay LightningMinnesota Wild9 October · NHL54461The most likely outcome came true: 123%3:2Final score 3:2. Model's score: 4:1.5.5
- Ottawa SenatorsPhiladelphia Flyers9 October · NHL63371The most likely outcome came true: 123%2:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 4:1.5.1
NHL on the same day
- 45552The most likely outcome came true: 224%1:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 1:4, exactly right.5.3
- 66341The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%2:3Final score 2:3. Model's score: 5:2.6.0
- 67331The most likely outcome came true: 121%5:0Final score 5:0. Model's score: 5:2.5.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →