NHL · Saturday, 17 October, MSK
Tampa Bay Lightning — Vancouver Canucks
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 17 October
In short
Tampa Bay Lightning are clear favourites: 71% to win including overtime and shootout.
5.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (6.0).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 57%.
Why
- Tampa Bay Lightning are more dangerous in attack: 3.5 expected goals against 2.3.
Facts
- League table: Tampa Bay Lightning — No. 13, 8 pts; Vancouver Canucks — No. 28, 4 pts. A gap of 4 pts.
- Vancouver Canucks: 5 defeats in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Tampa Bay Lightning 3 wins, Vancouver Canucks 2.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Tampa Bay Lightning — Vancouver Canucks | 3.5–2.3 | |
| Tampa Bay Lightning to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 71% | |
| Vancouver Canucks to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 29% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 57% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 43% |
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- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Tampa Bay Lightning
- Tampa Bay Lightning goals
- Overtime chance
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Form
- 14.10away · New York Rangers1:4
- 11.10away · New York Islanders5:3
- 09.10Minnesota Wild3:2
- 06.10Philadelphia Flyers4:1
- 04.10Washington Capitals3:1
- 14.10away · New York Islanders2:3
- 12.10away · New York Rangers2:6
- 10.10away · New Jersey Devils1:4
- 09.10away · Carolina Hurricanes2:7
- 05.10Vegas Golden Knights2:3
Head to head
- 20.03.2026Vancouver Canucks — Tampa Bay Lightning2:6
- 17.11.2025Tampa Bay Lightning — Vancouver Canucks2:6
- 09.12.2024Vancouver Canucks — Tampa Bay Lightning2:4
- 16.10.2024Tampa Bay Lightning — Vancouver Canucks4:1
- 13.12.2023Vancouver Canucks — Tampa Bay Lightning4:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Anaheim Ducks | 6 | 4 | +3 | 8 |
| 13, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Tampa Bay Lightning | 6 | 4 | +1 | 8 |
| 14, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Florida Panthers | 7 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 27 | Detroit Red Wings | 6 | 1 | -6 | 4 |
| 28 | Vancouver Canucks | 8 | 2 | -12 | 4 |
| 29 | Chicago Blackhawks | 7 | 2 | -12 | 4 |
NHL on the same day
- 65351The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 5:26.2
- 48522The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 2:55.8
- 58421The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 4:15.4
- 38622The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:45.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 58% will not happen in roughly 42 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →