NHL · Wednesday, 30 September, MSK · Scotiabank Arena
Toronto Maple Leafs — Montreal Canadiens
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
2:3Came true
In short
Final score 2:3: the model's most likely outcome, Montreal Canadiens to win (51% incl. overtime), came true.
Close to a coin flip: Toronto Maple Leafs 49%, Montreal Canadiens 51% including overtime.
6.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (6.0).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 61%.
Why
- The teams are almost level on expected goals: 3.0 and 3.1.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Toronto Maple Leafs — Montreal Canadiens | 3.0–3.1 | |
| Toronto Maple Leafs to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 49% | |
| Montreal Canadiens to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 51% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 61% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 39% |
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- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Toronto Maple Leafs
- Toronto Maple Leafs goals
- Overtime chance
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Form
- 16.04away · Ottawa Senators1:3
- 14.04Dallas Stars5:6
- 12.04Florida Panthers2:6
- 10.04away · New York Islanders3:5
- 09.04Washington Capitals0:4
- 30.05away · Carolina Hurricanes1:6
- 28.05Carolina Hurricanes0:4
- 26.05Carolina Hurricanes2:3 OT
- 24.05away · Carolina Hurricanes2:3 OT
- 22.05away · Carolina Hurricanes6:2
Head to head
- 11.03.2026Montreal Canadiens — Toronto Maple Leafs3:1
- 07.12.2025Toronto Maple Leafs — Montreal Canadiens1:2 SO
- 23.11.2025Montreal Canadiens — Toronto Maple Leafs5:2
- 09.10.2025Toronto Maple Leafs — Montreal Canadiens5:2
- 13.04.2025Toronto Maple Leafs — Montreal Canadiens1:0 OT
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Pittsburgh Penguins | 6 | 3 | +5 | 7 |
| 14, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Toronto Maple Leafs | 6 | 3 | +2 | 7 |
| 15, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Winnipeg Jets | 5 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 23 | St. Louis Blues | 5 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 24 | Montreal Canadiens | 5 | 2 | -4 | 5 |
| 25 | New York Islanders | 5 | 2 | +3 | 4 |
Next matches
- Toronto Maple LeafsNew York Islanders1 October · NHL46542The most likely outcome did not happen: 222%2:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:5.5.9
- Pittsburgh PenguinsMontreal Canadiens4 October · NHL53471The most likely outcome came true: 122%6:5OTFinal score 6:5 in overtime. Model's score: 5:2.6.3
NHL on the same day
- 61391The most likely outcome did not happen: 122%0:1OTFinal score 0:1 in overtime. Model's score: 4:1.5.8
- 53471The most likely outcome came true: 123%3:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 4:1.5.6
- 68321The most likely outcome did not happen: 120%5:6OTFinal score 5:6 in overtime. Model's score: 5:2.6.3
- 72281The most likely outcome came true: 120%5:2Final score 5:2. Model's score: 4:1.5.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →