NHL · Sunday, 8 November, (UTC+3)
Toronto Maple Leafs — Montreal Canadiens
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 8 November
In short
Close to a coin flip: Toronto Maple Leafs 49%, Montreal Canadiens 51% including overtime.
5.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (6.0).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 60%.
Why
- The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.9 and 2.9.
Facts
- League table: Toronto Maple Leafs — No. 13, 18 pts; Montreal Canadiens — No. 6, 21 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Toronto Maple Leafs 1 win, Montreal Canadiens 4.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Toronto Maple Leafs — Montreal Canadiens | 2.9–2.9 | |
| Toronto Maple Leafs to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 49% | |
| Montreal Canadiens to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 51% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 60% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 40% |
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- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Toronto Maple Leafs
- Toronto Maple Leafs goals
- Overtime chance
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Form
- 04.11Utah Mammoth2:3
- 01.11away · Vancouver Canucks4:2
- 29.10away · Seattle Kraken4:5
- 27.10away · Calgary Flames2:5
- 25.10away · Edmonton Oilers7:2
- 04.11Winnipeg Jets4:5 OT
- 01.11Pittsburgh Penguins5:4
- 30.10away · Dallas Stars5:2
- 28.10away · St. Louis Blues2:0
- 26.10away · Winnipeg Jets2:1
Head to head
- 30.09.2026Toronto Maple Leafs — Montreal Canadiens2:3
- 11.03.2026Montreal Canadiens — Toronto Maple Leafs3:1
- 07.12.2025Toronto Maple Leafs — Montreal Canadiens1:2 SO
- 23.11.2025Montreal Canadiens — Toronto Maple Leafs5:2
- 09.10.2025Toronto Maple Leafs — Montreal Canadiens5:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Vegas Golden Knights | 17 | 10 | +9 | 22 |
| 6, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Montreal Canadiens | 15 | 9 | +5 | 21 |
| 7, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | New Jersey Devils | 15 | 10 | +9 | 20 |
| 12, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Ottawa Senators | 16 | 9 | +1 | 19 |
| 13, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Toronto Maple Leafs | 17 | 8 | +6 | 18 |
| 14 | Florida Panthers | 15 | 8 | +3 | 18 |
NHL on the same day
- 48522The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:45.4
- 46542The model's most likely outcome: 224%Model's score: 1:45.3
- 49512The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:45.6
- 80201The model's most likely outcome: 118%Model's score: 4:15.5
- 73271The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:15.4
- 47532The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 2:55.8
- 62381The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 5:25.9
- 49512The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:45.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →