Swiss National League (hockey) · Tuesday, 27 October, 21:45 MSK

Zug — Lugano

Model prediction for 27 October

Zug44%

Draw in regulation22%

Lugano34%

Model estimate at 23:15 MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Zug are favourites: 55% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 5.0 in total, against a competition average of 5.4.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 42%.

Why

Zug are more dangerous in attack: 2.6 expected goals against 2.3.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Zug — Lugano		2.6–2.3
Zug to win (incl. OT and shootout)		55%
Lugano to win (incl. OT and shootout)		45%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)		42%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)		58%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Totals incl. OT
Handicap Zug
Zug goals
Overtime chance
Full score grid

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Form

Zug

11.10away · EHC Kloten3:1
04.10away · Servette1:2
29.09away · Rapperswil-Jona5:2
25.09away · Langnau Tigers3:5
22.09away · Lugano2:3 OT

Lugano

10.10away · Biel3:2
09.10Zurich2:3 OT
07.10away · Lausanne5:2
04.10away · Ajoie4:5
02.10Rapperswil-Jona5:2

Head to head

22.09.2026Lugano — Zug3:2 OT
09.03.2026Lugano — Zug4:1
14.01.2026Zug — Lugano2:3
21.11.2025Zug — Lugano2:3
12.09.2025Lugano — Zug1:2

Full record: 13 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	OTW	OTL	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
5, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Ajoie	11	2	4	2	3	35–38	-3	16
6, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Lugano	10	4	1	1	4	36–33	+3	15
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Lausanne	11	4	1	1	5	34–38	-4	15
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Bern	9	3	1	3	2	27–26	+1	14
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Zug	7	4	0	1	2	25–15	+10	13
11	Davos	11	4	0	1	6	27–31	-4	13

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

National League on the same day

21:45
Ambri-PiottaBielpreliminary
5347
1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 3:25.5
21:45
BernZurichpreliminary
4753
2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:24.6
21:45
EHC KlotenAjoiepreliminary
6436
1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.9
21:45
FribourgDavospreliminary
5743
1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 4:24.9
21:45
LausanneLangnau Tigerspreliminary
6139
1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.3
21:45
Rapperswil-JonaServettepreliminary
5050
1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.3

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →