Swiss National League (hockey) · Saturday, 14 November, 21:45 (UTC+3)

Zurich — Zug

Model prediction for 14 November

Zurich46%

Draw in regulation22%

Zug32%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Zurich are favourites: 58% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 5.0 in total, against a competition average of 5.4.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 43%.

Why

Zurich are more dangerous in attack: 2.7 expected goals against 2.3.

Facts

League table: Zurich — No. 1, 47 pts; Zug — No. 5, 28 pts. A gap of 19 pts.
Zurich: 5 wins in a row; Zug: 3 wins in a row.
Last 5 meetings: Zurich 1 win, Zug 4.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Zurich — Zug		2.7–2.3
Zurich to win (incl. OT and shootout)		58%
Zug to win (incl. OT and shootout)		42%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)		43%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)		57%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

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Totals incl. OT
Handicap Zurich
Zurich goals
Overtime chance
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Form

Zurich

31.10away · EHC Kloten4:0
30.10Ambri-Piotta4:3 SO
27.10away · Bern4:1
25.10away · Servette5:1
23.10Langnau Tigers3:2

Zug

31.10away · Bern8:1
30.10Langnau Tigers3:2
27.10Lugano7:2
24.10away · Biel0:5
23.10Lausanne4:1

Head to head

31.01.2026Zurich — Zug2:4
10.01.2026Zug — Zurich2:3 OT
17.10.2025Zurich — Zug2:3 SO
27.09.2025Zug — Zurich2:1 OT
22.02.2025Zug — Zurich5:4

Full record: 16 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	OTW	OTL	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
1, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Zurich	18	13	4	0	1	75–38	+37	47
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Ambri-Piotta	18	9	2	2	5	57–53	+4	33
4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Langnau Tigers	19	8	1	3	7	66–56	+10	29
5, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Zug	13	9	0	1	3	49–27	+22	28
6, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Bern	17	7	2	3	5	46–47	-1	28

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

National League on the same day

21:45
AjoieDavospreliminary
4456
2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:35.2
21:45
FribourgEHC Klotenpreliminary
6733
1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 3:14.6
21:45
Langnau TigersBielpreliminary
5842
1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.7
21:45
Rapperswil-JonaLuganopreliminary
4753
2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:35.3
21:45
ServetteBernpreliminary
4951
2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:24.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →