Tennis: ATP, Shanghai, qualifying, hard · Monday, 5 October, MSK

Bellucci M. — Ymer E.

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Model prediction and result

2:1Came true
Bellucci M.59%
Ymer E.41%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, Bellucci M. to win (59%), came true.

Bellucci M. are slightly stronger: 59% against 41%.

Over 22.5 games — 47%.

Why

  • Rating on hard: Bellucci M. 1519, Ymer E. 1429.

Probabilities

Games over 22.547%
Games under 22.553%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • Games handicap
  • Sets handicap
  • First set
  • Bellucci M. games
  • Ymer E. games
  • Score in sets
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Form

Bellucci M.

  • 24.09Majchrzak K.0:2

Ymer E.

  • 22.09Galarneau A.0:2

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Next match

  • Bellucci M.Muller A.6 October · ATP · Shanghai
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.22.5

ATP on the same day

  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:0.21.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.21.5
  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:2. Model's score: 2:0.21.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.21.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:1. Model's score: 0:2.23.5
  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:0.22.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 59% will not happen in roughly 41 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →