Tennis: ATP, Shanghai, hard · Friday, 9 October, MSK

Bublik A. — Machac T.

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Model prediction and result

2:0Came true
Bublik A.65%
Machac T.35%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:0: the model's most likely outcome, Bublik A. to win (65%), came true.

Bublik A. are clear favourites: 65% against 35% for the opponent.

Over 22.5 games — 48%.

Why

  • Rating on hard: Bublik A. 1699, Machac T. 1682.

Probabilities

Games over 22.548%
Games under 22.552%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • Games handicap
  • Sets handicap
  • First set
  • Bublik A. games
  • Machac T. games
  • Score in sets
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Form

Bublik A.

  • 01.10Mensik J.0:2

Machac T.

  • 07.10Zhang Z.2:1
  • 01.10Molcan A.0:2
  • 29.09Gea A.0:2
  • 28.09Hanfmann Y.2:1

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Next match

  • Bublik A.Nakashima B.11 October · ATP · Shanghai
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:1. Model's score: 0:2.23.5

ATP on the same day

  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.23.5
  • 2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:1. Model's score: 0:2.22.5
  • 2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:0. Model's score: 0:2.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.22.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.24.5
  • 2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:1. Model's score: 0:2.24.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.20.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.22.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 65% will not happen in roughly 35 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →