Tennis: ATP, Shanghai, hard · Saturday, 10 October, MSK

Cerundolo J. M. — Alcaraz C.

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Model prediction and result

0:2Came true
Cerundolo J. M.8%
Alcaraz C.92%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 0:2: the model's most likely outcome, Alcaraz C. to win (92%), came true.

Alcaraz C. are clear favourites: 92% against 8% for the opponent.

Over 19.5 games — 51%.

Why

  • Rating on hard: Cerundolo J. M. 1560, Alcaraz C. 2027.

Facts

  • Alcaraz C.: 5 wins in a row.

Probabilities

Games over 19.551%
Games under 19.549%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • Games handicap
  • Sets handicap
  • First set
  • Cerundolo J. M. games
  • Alcaraz C. games
  • Score in sets
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Form

Cerundolo J. M.

  • 08.10Mejia N.2:0
  • 30.09Bu Y.1:2
  • 26.09Davidovich Fokina A.0:2
  • 24.09Zhou Y.2:0

Alcaraz C.

  • 06.10Lehecka J.2:0
  • 05.10Munar J.2:1
  • 04.10Shapovalov D.1:0
  • 03.10Arnaldi M.2:0
  • 01.10Michelsen A.2:1

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Next match

  • Bergs Z.Alcaraz C.12 October · ATP · Shanghai
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:0. Model's score: 0:2.20.5

ATP on the same day

  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.22.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.20.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.20.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.22.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:2. Model's score: 2:0.22.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.22.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 92% will not happen in roughly 8 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →