Tennis: ATP, Shanghai, qualifying, hard · Monday, 5 October, MSK

Damm M. — Kotov P.

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Model prediction and result

1:2Missed
Damm M.78%
Kotov P.22%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:2: the model's most likely outcome, Damm M. to win (78%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 78% fails in about 22 matches out of 100 on average.

Damm M. are clear favourites: 78% against 22% for the opponent.

Over 21.5 games — 52%.

Why

  • Rating on hard: Damm M. 1541, Kotov P. 1496.

Probabilities

Games over 21.552%
Games under 21.548%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • Games handicap
  • Sets handicap
  • First set
  • Damm M. games
  • Kotov P. games
  • Score in sets
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Form

Damm M.

  • 28.09Fils A.1:2
  • 26.09Hurkacz H.1:2
  • 24.09Mochizuki S.2:0

Kotov P.

  • 23.09Mochizuki S.0:2
  • 22.09Castelnuovo L.2:1

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Next match

  • Kotov P.Vukic A.6 October · ATP · Shanghai
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:0. Model's score: 0:2.22.5

ATP on the same day

  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:0.21.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.21.5
  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:2. Model's score: 2:0.21.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.21.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:1. Model's score: 0:2.23.5
  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:0.22.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 78% will not happen in roughly 22 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →