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Tennis: ATP, Vienna, hard · Monday, 26 October, (UTC+3)

Darderi L. — Arnaldi M.

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Model prediction and result

2:0Came true
Darderi L.53%
Arnaldi M.47%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:0: the model's most likely outcome, Darderi L. to win (53%), came true.

Evenly matched: Darderi L. 53%, Arnaldi M. 47%.

Over 22.5 games — 51%.

Why

  • Rating on hard: Darderi L. 1596, Arnaldi M. 1563.

Facts

  • Darderi L.: 3 defeats in a row.

Probabilities

Games over 22.551%
Games under 22.549%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • Games handicap
  • Sets handicap
  • First set
  • Darderi L. games
  • Arnaldi M. games
  • Score in sets
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Form

Darderi L.

  • 21.10Duckworth J.0:2
  • 10.10Tsitsipas S.0:2
  • 02.10Jacquet K.0:2
  • 01.10Ruud C.2:0

Arnaldi M.

  • 19.10Musetti L.0:2
  • 10.10Fritz T.0:2
  • 08.10Tomic B.2:0
  • 03.10Alcaraz C.0:2
  • 30.09Sakamoto R.2:1

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Next matches

  • Paul T.Darderi L.29 October · ATP · Vienna
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.21.5
  • Norrie C.Arnaldi M.2 November · ATP · Paris
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.22.5

ATP on the same day

  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.22.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.21.5
  • 2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:1. Model's score: 0:2.22.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.21.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.23.5
  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:0.23.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.21.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 53% will not happen in roughly 47 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →