Tennis: ATP, Tokyo, hard · Friday, 2 October, MSK

Fils A. — Tiafoe F.

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Model prediction and result

2:0Came true
Fils A.61%
Tiafoe F.39%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:0: the model's most likely outcome, Fils A. to win (61%), came true.

Fils A. are clear favourites: 61% against 39% for the opponent.

Over 24.5 games — 51%.

Why

  • Rating on hard: Fils A. 1866, Tiafoe F. 1790.

Probabilities

Games over 24.551%
Games under 24.549%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • Games handicap
  • Sets handicap
  • First set
  • Fils A. games
  • Tiafoe F. games
  • Score in sets
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Form

Fils A.

  • 30.09van Assche L.2:0
  • 29.09Majchrzak K.2:1
  • 28.09Damm M.2:1

Tiafoe F.

  • 01.10Nishikori K.2:0

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Next matches

  • Vacherot V.Fils A.4 October · ATP · Tokyo
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:1. Model's score: 0:2.23.5
  • Hanfmann Y.Tiafoe F.9 October · ATP · Shanghai
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.22.5

ATP on the same day

  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.25.5
  • 2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:1. Model's score: 0:2.24.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.24.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.22.5
  • 2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:0. Model's score: 0:2.24.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.24.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.20.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 61% will not happen in roughly 39 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →