Tennis: ATP, Shanghai, hard · Wednesday, 7 October, MSK

Gea A. — Faria J.

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Model prediction and result

2:1Came true
Gea A.63%
Faria J.37%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, Gea A. to win (63%), came true.

Gea A. are clear favourites: 63% against 37% for the opponent.

Over 22.5 games — 51%.

Why

  • Rating on hard: Gea A. 1613, Faria J. 1583.

Probabilities

Games over 22.551%
Games under 22.549%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • Games handicap
  • Sets handicap
  • First set
  • Gea A. games
  • Faria J. games
  • Score in sets
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Form

Gea A.

  • 02.10Hurkacz H.1:2
  • 30.09Zhang Z.2:0
  • 29.09Machac T.2:0
  • 28.09Te R.2:0

Faria J.

  • 02.10Munar J.0:2
  • 01.10Fery A.2:1
  • 29.09Vallejo D.1:2
  • 28.09Mochizuki S.2:0
  • 25.09Gaston H.1:2

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Next match

  • Gea A.Humbert U.9 October · ATP · Shanghai
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.23.5

ATP on the same day

  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.23.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 1:0. Model's score: 2:0.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.22.5
  • 2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:1. Model's score: 0:2.23.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.22.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.22.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.22.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 63% will not happen in roughly 37 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →