Tennis: ATP, Beijing, hard · Friday, 2 October, MSK

Medvedev D. — Carreno-Busta P.

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Model prediction and result

2:0Came true
Medvedev D.81%
Carreno-Busta P.19%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:0: the model's most likely outcome, Medvedev D. to win (81%), came true.

Medvedev D. are clear favourites: 81% against 19% for the opponent.

Over 22.5 games — 48%.

Why

  • Rating on hard: Medvedev D. 1839, Carreno-Busta P. 1630.

Facts

  • Medvedev D.: 4 wins in a row.

Probabilities

Games over 22.548%
Games under 22.552%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • Games handicap
  • Sets handicap
  • First set
  • Medvedev D. games
  • Carreno-Busta P. games
  • Score in sets
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Form

Medvedev D.

  • 29.09Rublev A.2:0
  • 28.09Safiullin R.2:0
  • 27.09Wong C.2:1
  • 26.09Royer V.2:0

Carreno-Busta P.

  • 29.09Mannarino A.2:0
  • 28.09Zhou Y.2:0

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Next matches

  • Medvedev D.Struff J-L.3 October · ATP · Beijing
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.22.5
  • Navone M.Carreno-Busta P.8 October · ATP · Shanghai
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.22.5

ATP on the same day

  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.25.5
  • 2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:1. Model's score: 0:2.24.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.24.5
  • 2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:0. Model's score: 0:2.24.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.24.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.24.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.20.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 81% will not happen in roughly 19 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →