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Tennis: ATP, Beijing, hard · Thursday, 1 October, MSK

Shang J. — Baez S.

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Model prediction and result

2:1Missed
Shang J.50%
Baez S.50%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, Baez S. to win (50%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 50% fails in about 50 matches out of 100 on average.

Evenly matched: Shang J. 50%, Baez S. 50%.

Over 25.5 games — 48%.

Why

  • Rating on hard: Shang J. 1582, Baez S. 1583.

Probabilities

Games over 25.548%
Games under 25.552%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • Games handicap
  • Sets handicap
  • First set
  • Shang J. games
  • Baez S. games
  • Score in sets
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Form

Shang J.

  • 24.09Mannarino A.0:2

Baez S.

  • 23.09Brooksby J.0:2

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Next matches

  • Zverev A.Shang J.3 October · ATP · Beijing
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.21.5
  • Giron M.Baez S.8 October · ATP · Shanghai
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.22.5

ATP on the same day

  • Faria J.Fery A.
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.25.5
  • Darderi L.Ruud C.
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:0. Model's score: 0:2.24.5
  • Nakashima B.Humbert U.
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:0.25.5
  • Fritz T.Munar J.
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:2. Model's score: 2:0.22.5
  • De Minaur A.Navone M.
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.22.5
  • Etcheverry T. M.Tsitsipas S.
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.21.5
  • Rune H.Jacquet K.
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:0.22.5
  • Van De Zandschulp B.Cerundolo F.
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.25.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →