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Tennis: ATP, Tokyo, hard · Thursday, 1 October, MSK

Shapovalov D. — Shimabukuro S.

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Model prediction and result

2:0Came true
Shapovalov D.82%
Shimabukuro S.18%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:0: the model's most likely outcome, Shapovalov D. to win (82%), came true.

Shapovalov D. are clear favourites: 82% against 18% for the opponent.

Over 22.5 games — 48%.

Why

  • Rating on hard: Shapovalov D. 1685, Shimabukuro S. 1412.

Probabilities

Games over 22.548%
Games under 22.552%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • Games handicap
  • Sets handicap
  • First set
  • Shapovalov D. games
  • Shimabukuro S. games
  • Score in sets
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Form

Shapovalov D.

  • 28.09Hurkacz H.1:2
  • 27.09Mannarino A.2:1
  • 25.09Kopriva V.2:0
  • 24.09Griekspoor T.2:0

Shimabukuro S.

  • 24.09Gaston H.0:2

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Next matches

  • Shapovalov D.Tabilo A.3 October · ATP · Tokyo
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.25.5
  • Shimabukuro S.Kecmanovic M.7 October · ATP · Shanghai
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.22.5

ATP on the same day

  • Faria J.Fery A.
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.25.5
  • Darderi L.Ruud C.
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:0. Model's score: 0:2.24.5
  • Nakashima B.Humbert U.
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:0.25.5
  • Fritz T.Munar J.
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:2. Model's score: 2:0.22.5
  • De Minaur A.Navone M.
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.22.5
  • Etcheverry T. M.Tsitsipas S.
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.21.5
  • Rune H.Jacquet K.
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:0.22.5
  • Van De Zandschulp B.Cerundolo F.
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.25.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 82% will not happen in roughly 18 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →