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Tennis: ATP, Beijing, hard · Thursday, 1 October, MSK

Tien L. — Hurkacz H.

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Model prediction and result

1:2Missed
Tien L.51%
Hurkacz H.49%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:2: the model's most likely outcome, Tien L. to win (51%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 51% fails in about 49 matches out of 100 on average.

Evenly matched: Tien L. 51%, Hurkacz H. 49%.

Over 25.5 games — 48%.

Why

  • Rating on hard: Tien L. 1781, Hurkacz H. 1739.

Probabilities

Games over 25.548%
Games under 25.552%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • Games handicap
  • Sets handicap
  • First set
  • Tien L. games
  • Hurkacz H. games
  • Score in sets
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Form

Tien L.

No past matches in the data yet.

Hurkacz H.

  • 29.09Davidovich Fokina A.0:2
  • 28.09Shapovalov D.2:1
  • 27.09Harris L.2:0
  • 26.09Damm M.2:1
  • 24.09Shevchenko A.2:0

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Next matches

  • Hurkacz H.Gea A.2 October · ATP · Beijing
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.24.5
  • Tien L.Svajda Z.10 October · ATP · Shanghai
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.21.5

ATP on the same day

  • Faria J.Fery A.
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.25.5
  • Darderi L.Ruud C.
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:0. Model's score: 0:2.24.5
  • Nakashima B.Humbert U.
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:0.25.5
  • Fritz T.Munar J.
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:2. Model's score: 2:0.22.5
  • De Minaur A.Navone M.
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.22.5
  • Etcheverry T. M.Tsitsipas S.
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.21.5
  • Rune H.Jacquet K.
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:0.22.5
  • Van De Zandschulp B.Cerundolo F.
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.25.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →