UFC (mixed martial arts) · Sunday, 15 November, (UTC+3)
Drew Dober — Chris Duncanbeta
☆ Save boutModel prediction for 15 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Chris Duncan are slightly stronger: 58% against 42%.
Why
- Elo rating: Drew Dober 1552, Chris Duncan 1582.
Probabilities
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The chance of each fighter’s method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, decision), whether the bout goes the distance, the fighters’ ratings, age and reach and how the estimate moved before the bout.
- Method of victory: KO/TKO, submission, decision
- KO/TKO by each fighter
- Goes the distance
- Fighters’ Elo, age and reach
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Form
- 08.03Michael Johnson1:0
- 19.10Kyle Prepolec1:0
- 30.03Manuel Torres0:1
- 14.07Jean Silva0:1
- 04.02Renato Moicano0:1
- 05.04Renato Moicano0:1
- 07.12Terrance McKinney1:0
- 03.08Mateusz Rebecki1:0
- 23.03Jordan Vucenic1:0
- 29.09Bolaji Oki1:0
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
UFC on the same day
- Nazim SadykhovJefferson Nascimentopreliminary58421The model's most likely outcome: 1—
- Adrian YanezJuan Diazpreliminary47532The model's most likely outcome: 2—
- Macy ChiassonBia Mesquitapreliminary34662The model's most likely outcome: 2—
- Jared GordonMelquizael Costapreliminary27732The model's most likely outcome: 2—
- Evan ElderSamuel Sanchespreliminary52481The model's most likely outcome: 1—
- Jim MillerTerrance McKinneypreliminary25752The model's most likely outcome: 2—
- Stephen ThompsonCharles Radtkepreliminary29712The model's most likely outcome: 2—
- Donte JohnsonCesar Almeidapreliminary80201The model's most likely outcome: 1—
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 58% will not happen in roughly 42 bouts out of 100. How to read probabilities →