UFC (mixed martial arts) · Sunday, 15 November, (UTC+3)
Jared Gordon — Melquizael Costabeta
☆ Save boutModel prediction for 15 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Melquizael Costa are clear favourites: 73% against 27% for the opponent.
Why
- Elo rating: Jared Gordon 1497, Melquizael Costa 1609.
Probabilities
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The chance of each fighter’s method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, decision), whether the bout goes the distance, the fighters’ ratings, age and reach and how the estimate moved before the bout.
- Method of victory: KO/TKO, submission, decision
- KO/TKO by each fighter
- Goes the distance
- Fighters’ Elo, age and reach
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Form
- 10.05Jim Miller0:1
- 14.09Rafa Garcia0:1
- 18.05Thiago Moises1:0
- 23.06Nasrat Haqparast0:1
- 12.11Mark Madsen1:0
- 17.05Arnold Allen0:1
- 22.02Dan Ige1:0
- 14.12Morgan Charriere1:0
- 18.05Julian Erosa1:0
- 30.03Christian Rodriguez1:0
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
UFC on the same day
- Nazim SadykhovJefferson Nascimentopreliminary58421The model's most likely outcome: 1—
- Adrian YanezJuan Diazpreliminary47532The model's most likely outcome: 2—
- Macy ChiassonBia Mesquitapreliminary34662The model's most likely outcome: 2—
- Evan ElderSamuel Sanchespreliminary52481The model's most likely outcome: 1—
- Jim MillerTerrance McKinneypreliminary25752The model's most likely outcome: 2—
- Drew DoberChris Duncanpreliminary42582The model's most likely outcome: 2—
- Stephen ThompsonCharles Radtkepreliminary29712The model's most likely outcome: 2—
- Donte JohnsonCesar Almeidapreliminary80201The model's most likely outcome: 1—
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 73% will not happen in roughly 27 bouts out of 100. How to read probabilities →