SuperLega (Italian volleyball) · Saturday, 31 October, (UTC+3)

Monza — Perugiabeta

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Model prediction for 31 October

Monza4%
Perugia96%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Perugia are clear favourites: 96% against 4% for the opponent.

The most likely score in sets is 0:3. The model expects about 156 points in the match. First set: Perugia — 84%.

Over 144.5 points — 47%.

Why

  • Elo rating by sets: Monza 1488, Perugia 1853; chance to win a single set: Perugia 84%.

Facts

  • Last 5 meetings: Monza 0 wins, Perugia 5.

Probabilities

First set: Monza16%
First set: Perugia84%
Points over 144.547%
Points under 144.553%

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The chance of every score in sets, set handicaps and totals, every points total, the teams’ ratings and how the estimate moved before the match.

  • Score in sets
  • Sets handicap Monza
  • Total sets
  • All points totals
  • Teams’ Elo ratings by sets
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Form

Monza

  • 25.04Trentino0:3
  • 19.04away · Trentino0:3
  • 08.04away · Padova3:0
  • 04.04Padova3:0
  • 18.03away · Perugia0:3

Perugia

  • 17.05Zawiercie3:0
  • 16.05away · Projekt Warszawa3:0
  • 06.05Lube Civitanova3:1
  • 03.05away · Lube Civitanova3:1
  • 30.04Lube Civitanova3:0

Head to head

  • 18.03.2026Perugia — Monza3:0
  • 15.03.2026Monza — Perugia2:3
  • 07.03.2026Perugia — Monza3:1
  • 26.11.2025Perugia — Monza3:1
  • 21.10.2025Monza — Perugia1:3

Full record: 15 meetings →

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 96% will not happen in roughly 4 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →