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Liga ACB (Spanish basketball league) · Sunday, 15 November, (UTC+3)

Baskonia — Real Madrid

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Model prediction for 15 November

Baskonia52%
Real Madrid48%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Evenly matched: Baskonia 52%, Real Madrid 48%.

The model expects a score around 96:95 — 191 point in total.

Over 190.5 points (incl. overtime) — 50%.

Why

  • Team strength against the league average: Baskonia +7.6, Real Madrid +10.5 points in regulation.

Facts

  • League table: Baskonia — No. 8, 4–2; Real Madrid — No. 1, 6–0.
  • Real Madrid: 5 wins in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Baskonia 3 wins, Real Madrid 2.

Probabilities

Expected points (incl. overtime): Baskonia — Real Madrid96.0–95.3
Total over 190.5 (incl. OT)50%
Total under 190.5 (incl. OT)50%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All handicaps
  • All totals
  • Baskonia points
  • Real Madrid points
  • Regulation 1X2
  • Offence and defence strength
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Form

Baskonia

  • 01.11Manresa106:83
  • 30.10away · Lyon-Villeurbanne79:94
  • 27.10Real Madrid86:104
  • 25.10away · Valencia75:84
  • 22.10away · Panathinaikos79:85

Real Madrid

  • 01.11San Pablo Burgos90:79
  • 29.10Fenerbahce95:76
  • 27.10away · Baskonia104:86
  • 25.10away · Forca Lleida122:86
  • 22.10away · Maccabi Tel Aviv113:99

Head to head

  • 27.10.2026Baskonia — Real Madrid86:104
  • 27.05.2026Real Madrid — Baskonia83:88
  • 03.04.2026Baskonia — Real Madrid98:96
  • 11.12.2025Real Madrid — Baskonia94:87
  • 12.10.2025Baskonia — Real Madrid105:100

Full record: 37 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWLPCTGB
1, PlayoffsReal Madrid6601.000—
2, PlayoffsBarcelona642.6672
7, PlayoffsBasket Zaragoza642.6672
8, PlayoffsBaskonia642.6672
9Basquet Girona633.5003

Season 2026/27 · by win percentage, ties by head-to-head record, then the points difference in those games and overall

Full table

Liga ACB on the same day

  • Forca LleidaManresapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: —193.7
  • ValenciaLeyma Corunapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: —190.9
  • UnicajaBasquet Gironapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: —178.0
  • BarcelonaObradoiro CABpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: —184.2
  • BilbaoMurciapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: —179.3

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 52% will not happen in roughly 48 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →