Eredivisie (Netherlands), round 8 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Johan Cruijff ArenA
Ajax — NEC Nijmegen
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In short
Final score 1:1: the model's most likely outcome, Ajax to win (63%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 63% fails in about 37 matches out of 100 on average.
Ajax are clear favourites: 63% against 16% for the opponent, draw 21%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.8 in total, against a competition average of 3.3.
Over 2.5 goals — 73%, both teams to score — 69%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Ajax are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- NEC Nijmegen: winless in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Ajax 1 win, NEC Nijmegen 1, 3 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Ajax — NEC Nijmegen What is xG? | 2.5–1.3 | |
| Ajax not to lose | 84% | |
| NEC Nijmegen not to lose | 37% | |
| No draw | 79% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 69% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 31% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 73% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 27% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Ajax
- Ajax goals
- NEC Nijmegen goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 19.09Excelsior2:2
- 15.09Willem II5:1
- 12.09away · Fortuna Sittard5:1
- 05.09PSV Eindhoven1:3
- 30.08away · Telstar4:0
- 20.09Go Ahead Eagles1:1
- 17.09away · Juventus0:5
- 12.09away · Cambuur0:3
- 08.09Excelsior2:2
- 05.09Feyenoord1:3
Head to head
- 21.02.2026Ajax — NEC Nijmegen1:1
- 20.12.2025NEC Nijmegen — Ajax2:2
- 11.05.2025Ajax — NEC Nijmegen0:3
- 01.12.2024NEC Nijmegen — Ajax1:2
- 18.02.2024Ajax — NEC Nijmegen2:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | FC Twente | 8 | 5 | +8 | 17 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | +12 | 15 |
| 6 | FC Groningen | 8 | 4 | +6 | 14 |
| 10 | SC Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 8 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | -8 | 8 |
Next matches
- Hajduk SplitAjax15 October · Conference League2525502The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:32.8
- NEC NijmegenLevski Sofia15 October · Europa League5524211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
Eredivisie on the same day
- 5226221The most likely outcome did not happen: 13:3Final score 3:3. Model's score: 2:1.3.6
- 5624201The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 3:1.3.3
- 1827552The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 0:2.3.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 63% will not happen in roughly 37 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →