UEFA Europa League, round 2 · Thursday, 15 October, MSK · AFAS Stadion
AZ Alkmaar — Hapoel Beer Sheva
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 15 October
In short
AZ Alkmaar are clear favourites: 72% against 10% for the opponent, draw 17%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.2 in total, against a competition average of 2.7.
Over 2.5 goals — 63%, both teams to score — 51%.
Why
- By the strength ratings AZ Alkmaar are about 1.0 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: AZ Alkmaar — No. 25, 0 pts; Hapoel Beer Sheva — No. 19, 1 pt. A gap of 1 pt.
- Hapoel Beer Sheva: unbeaten in 5.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: AZ Alkmaar — Hapoel Beer Sheva What is xG? | 2.4–0.8 | |
| AZ Alkmaar not to lose | 90% | |
| Hapoel Beer Sheva not to lose | 28% | |
| No draw | 83% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 51% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 49% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 63% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 37% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap AZ Alkmaar
- AZ Alkmaar goals
- Hapoel Beer Sheva goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10away · Feyenoord0:2
- 20.09Telstar1:0
- 16.09away · Sunderland0:1
- 11.09Willem II1:1
- 06.09away · SC Heerenveen3:2
- 16.09Dinamo Zagreb0:0
- 03.11Austria Wien4:0
- 27.10away · Villarreal2:2
- 13.10Lech Poznań1:1
- 06.10away · Lech Poznań0:0
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Rennes | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 19, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 20, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Sturm Graz | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 24, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Jagiellonia Białystok | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| 26 | Levski Sofia | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
Europa League on the same day
- 4226321The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- 4526291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- 2525502The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:32.9
- 6221161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- 2525502The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:32.9
- 5225241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- 1420662The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.1
- 6819131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 72% will not happen in roughly 28 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →