EFL Championship, round 10 · Tuesday, 13 October, MSK · Turf Moor
Burnley — Charlton Athletic
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
In short
Final score 2:2: the model's most likely outcome, Burnley to win (58%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 58% fails in about 42 matches out of 100 on average.
Burnley are clear favourites: 58% against 16% for the opponent, draw 26%.
2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 42%, both teams to score — 46%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Burnley are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
- Burnley: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Burnley — Charlton Athletic What is xG? | 1.6–0.8 | |
| Burnley not to lose | 84% | |
| Charlton Athletic not to lose | 42% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 46% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 54% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 42% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 58% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Burnley
- Burnley goals
- Charlton Athletic goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 10.10away · Watford4:0
- 19.09Derby County1:1
- 12.09away · Swansea City1:3
- 08.09away · Wrexham1:1
- 05.09Bristol City1:2
- 10.10Bristol City1:1
- 19.09away · Cardiff City1:3
- 12.09Portsmouth0:0
- 09.09Queens Park Rangers0:0
- 05.09away · Stoke City0:4
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Bristol City | 10 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 13 | Charlton Athletic | 10 | 3 | -3 | 14 |
| 14 | Bolton Wanderers | 10 | 4 | -3 | 13 |
| 20 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 21 | Burnley | 10 | 1 | -4 | 8 |
| 22, Relegation | Watford | 10 | 2 | -11 | 8 |
Next matches
- BurnleyWolverhampton Wanderers16 October · Championship3829331The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.7
- WatfordCharlton Athletic17 October · Championship4329281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.4
Championship on the same day
- 4130301The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.4
- 4728261The most likely outcome came true: 15:1Final score 5:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.8
- 4927241The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.7
- 6322151The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:3Final score 1:3. Model's score: 1:0.3.0
- 4330271The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 2:0.2.3
- 6024161The most likely outcome came true: 14:0Final score 4:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.8
- 2128512The most likely outcome came true: 22:3Final score 2:3. Model's score: 0:1.2.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 58% will not happen in roughly 42 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →