EFL Championship, round 10 · Tuesday, 13 October, MSK · Cardiff City Stadium
Cardiff City — Watford
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
5:1Came true
In short
Final score 5:1: the model's most likely outcome, Cardiff City to win (47%), came true.
Cardiff City are clear favourites: 47% against 26% for the opponent, draw 28%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 59%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- Cardiff City: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Cardiff City — Watford What is xG? | 1.6–1.2 | |
| Cardiff City not to lose | 74% | |
| Watford not to lose | 53% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 59% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 41% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 54% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 46% |
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- Cardiff City goals
- Watford goals
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Form
- 10.10away · Blackburn Rovers1:2
- 19.09Charlton Athletic3:1
- 12.09away · Bolton Wanderers0:1
- 08.09Stoke City1:1
- 05.09away · Portsmouth0:2
- 10.10Burnley0:4
- 18.09away · Bristol City0:1
- 12.09Stoke City1:2
- 08.09Preston North End2:1
- 05.09away · West Bromwich Albion0:1
Head to head
- 14.01.2025Cardiff City — Watford1:1
- 29.12.2024Watford — Cardiff City1:2
- 03.02.2024Watford — Cardiff City0:1
- 07.10.2023Cardiff City — Watford1:1
- 19.04.2023Watford — Cardiff City1:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Lincoln City | 9 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
| 18 | Cardiff City | 10 | 2 | +1 | 10 |
| 19 | Norwich City | 9 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 21 | Burnley | 10 | 1 | -4 | 8 |
| 22, Relegation | Watford | 10 | 2 | -11 | 8 |
| 23, Relegation | Derby County | 9 | 1 | -7 | 6 |
Next matches
- MiddlesbroughCardiff City17 October · Championship6720131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.5
- WatfordCharlton Athletic17 October · Championship4329281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.4
Championship on the same day
- 4130301The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.4
- 5826161The most likely outcome did not happen: 12:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 2:1.2.4
- 4927241The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.7
- 6322151The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:3Final score 1:3. Model's score: 1:0.3.0
- 4330271The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 2:0.2.3
- 6024161The most likely outcome came true: 14:0Final score 4:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.8
- 2128512The most likely outcome came true: 22:3Final score 2:3. Model's score: 0:1.2.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 47% will not happen in roughly 53 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →