EFL Championship, round 10 · Tuesday, 13 October, MSK · St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park
Birmingham City — Preston North End
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
4:0Came true
In short
Final score 4:0: the model's most likely outcome, Birmingham City to win (60%), came true.
Birmingham City are clear favourites: 60% against 16% for the opponent, draw 24%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 54%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Birmingham City are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
- Birmingham City: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Birmingham City — Preston North End What is xG? | 1.9–0.9 | |
| Birmingham City not to lose | 84% | |
| Preston North End not to lose | 40% | |
| No draw | 76% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 54% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 46% |
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- Handicap Birmingham City
- Birmingham City goals
- Preston North End goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 10.10away · West Bromwich Albion1:0
- 19.09Middlesbrough2:2
- 12.09away · Derby County2:1
- 09.09away · Norwich City1:2
- 06.09Wolverhampton Wanderers2:2
- 10.10Millwall0:1
- 19.09away · Queens Park Rangers2:2
- 12.09Lincoln City0:1
- 08.09away · Watford1:2
- 05.09Blackburn Rovers2:1
Head to head
- 22.04.2026Birmingham City — Preston North End2:1
- 21.10.2025Preston North End — Birmingham City0:1
- 01.04.2024Birmingham City — Preston North End1:0
- 19.09.2023Preston North End — Birmingham City2:1
- 21.01.2023Birmingham City — Preston North End1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Promotion play-offs | Southampton | 9 | 5 | +10 | 17 |
| 4, Promotion play-offs | Birmingham City | 10 | 4 | +6 | 17 |
| 5, Promotion play-offs | West Bromwich Albion | 10 | 5 | +2 | 17 |
| 23, Relegation | Derby County | 9 | 1 | -7 | 6 |
| 24, Relegation | Preston North End | 10 | 1 | -12 | 4 |
Next matches
- Birmingham CityQueens Park Rangers17 October · Championship5127221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
- WrexhamPreston North End17 October · Championship5227211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6
Championship on the same day
- 4130301The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.4
- 5826161The most likely outcome did not happen: 12:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 2:1.2.4
- 4728261The most likely outcome came true: 15:1Final score 5:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.8
- 4927241The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.7
- 6322151The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:3Final score 1:3. Model's score: 1:0.3.0
- 4330271The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 2:0.2.3
- 2128512The most likely outcome came true: 22:3Final score 2:3. Model's score: 0:1.2.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 60% will not happen in roughly 40 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →