UEFA Nations League, round 4, League C, group 2 · Monday, 5 October, MSK · Neo GSP
Cyprus — Latvia
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
2:1Came true
In short
Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, Cyprus to win (50%), came true.
Cyprus are clear favourites: 50% against 22% for the opponent, draw 28%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).
Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 50%.
Why
- National-team Elo: Cyprus 1336, Latvia 1256 — Cyprus rated higher.
- Cyprus: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Cyprus — Latvia What is xG? | 1.6–1.0 | |
| Cyprus not to lose | 78% | |
| Latvia not to lose | 50% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 50% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 50% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 46% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 54% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Cyprus
- Cyprus goals
- Latvia goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 02.10Armenia2:0
- 28.09away · Latvia0:0
- 25.09away · Montenegro1:2
- 07.06away · Liechtenstein2:0
- 04.06away · Slovenia1:1
- 02.10Montenegro1:2
- 28.09Cyprus0:0
- 25.09away · Armenia0:2
- 09.06Faroe Islands0:1
- 06.06away · Lithuania1:1
Head to head
- 28.09.2026Latvia — Cyprus0:0
- 21.03.2024Cyprus — Latvia1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Promotion to the league above | Montenegro | 4 | 3 | +3 | 10 |
| 2, Promotion play-offs | Cyprus | 4 | 2 | +2 | 7 |
| 3 | Armenia | 4 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 | Latvia | 4 | 0 | -4 | 1 |
UEFA Nations League on the same day
- 5225231The most likely outcome came true: 14:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 1:0.3.0
- 5922191The most likely outcome came true: 13:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 3:0.3.1
- 4230281The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.2
- 3030402The most likely outcome came true: 21:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.3
- 2527482The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 0:2.2.5
- 2324532The most likely outcome came true: 20:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 1:2.3.2
- 5922191The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 3:1.3.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →