UEFA Nations League, round 3, League C, group 1 · Saturday, 3 October, MSK · Helsingin olympiastadion
Finland — Albania
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2:1Came true
In short
Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, Finland to win (34%), came true.
Evenly matched: Finland 34%, Albania 34%, draw 32%.
2.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).
Over 2.5 goals — 38%, both teams to score — 46%.
Why
- National-team Elo: Finland 1532, Albania 1632 — Albania rated higher.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Finland — Albania What is xG? | 1.1–1.1 | |
| Finland not to lose | 66% | |
| Albania not to lose | 66% | |
| No draw | 68% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 46% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 54% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 38% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 62% |
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- Corners and cards
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Form
- 29.09Belarus0:0
- 26.09away · San Marino7:0
- 05.06away · Hungary1:2
- 31.05away · Germany0:4
- 30.03away · Cape Verde1:1
- 29.09away · San Marino3:0
- 26.09Belarus2:0
- 06.06Luxembourg0:1
- 03.06Israel0:1
- 31.03away · Ukraine0:1
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Promotion to the league above | Albania | 4 | 3 | +5 | 9 |
| 2, Promotion play-offs | Finland | 4 | 2 | +7 | 7 |
| 3 | Belarus | 4 | 2 | +3 | 7 |
| 4 | San Marino | 4 | 0 | -15 | 0 |
Next matches
- BelarusFinland6 October · UEFA Nations League2129502The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:2.2.3
- AlbaniaSan Marino6 October · UEFA Nations League95401The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.3.4
UEFA Nations League on the same day
- 2325522The most likely outcome came true: 20:7Final score 0:7. Model's score: 1:2.2.9
- 871121The most likely outcome came true: 14:0Final score 4:0. Model's score: 2:0.3.1
- 3231372The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 0:1.2.3
- 6223151The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.9
- 88931The most likely outcome came true: 13:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 3:0.3.6
- 2127522The most likely outcome came true: 20:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.7
- 6623121The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.2.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 34% will not happen in roughly 66 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →