UEFA Nations League, round 3, League A, group 3 · Saturday, 3 October, MSK · Estadio Municipal Carlos Tartiere
Spain — Czechia
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3:1Came true
In short
Final score 3:1: the model's most likely outcome, Spain to win (88%), came true.
Spain are clear favourites: 88% against 3% for the opponent, draw 9%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.6 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.
Over 2.5 goals — 70%, both teams to score — 37%.
Why
- National-team Elo: Spain 2281, Czechia 1659 — Spain clearly rated higher.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Spain — Czechia What is xG? | 3.1–0.5 | |
| Spain not to lose | 97% | |
| Czechia not to lose | 12% | |
| No draw | 91% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 37% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 63% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 70% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 30% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
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- Handicap Spain
- Spain goals
- Czechia goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
Head to head
- 12.06.2022Spain — Czechia2:0
- 05.06.2022Czechia — Spain2:2
Table
Next matches
- CroatiaSpain6 October · UEFA Nations League918742The most likely outcome came true: 21:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:3.3.2
- EnglandCzechia6 October · UEFA Nations League831241The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 2:0.3.3
UEFA Nations League on the same day
- 3432341The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.2
- 2325522The most likely outcome came true: 20:7Final score 0:7. Model's score: 1:2.2.9
- 871121The most likely outcome came true: 14:0Final score 4:0. Model's score: 2:0.3.1
- 3231372The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 0:1.2.3
- 6223151The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.9
- 2127522The most likely outcome came true: 20:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.7
- 6623121The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.2.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 88% will not happen in roughly 12 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →