UEFA Nations League, round 3, League A, group 3 · Saturday, 3 October, MSK · Stadion HNK Rijeka
Croatia — England
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
0:7Came true
In short
Final score 0:7: the model's most likely outcome, England to win (52%), came true.
England are clear favourites: 52% against 23% for the opponent, draw 25%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 2.9 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.
Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 58%.
Why
- National-team Elo: Croatia 1891, England 2114 — England clearly rated higher.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Croatia — England What is xG? | 1.1–1.8 | |
| Croatia not to lose | 48% | |
| England not to lose | 77% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 56% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 44% |
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Form
- 29.09away · Spain1:4
- 26.09away · Czechia2:1
- 03.07away · Portugal1:2
- 28.06Ghana2:1
- 24.06away · Panama1:0
- 29.09away · Czechia2:0
- 26.09Spain2:3
- 19.07away · France6:4
- 15.07Argentina1:2
- 12.07away · Norway2:1
Head to head
- 17.06.2026England — Croatia4:2
- 13.06.2021England — Croatia1:0
Table
Next matches
- CroatiaSpain6 October · UEFA Nations League918742The most likely outcome came true: 21:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:3.3.2
- EnglandCzechia6 October · UEFA Nations League831241The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 2:0.3.3
UEFA Nations League on the same day
- 3432341The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.2
- 871121The most likely outcome came true: 14:0Final score 4:0. Model's score: 2:0.3.1
- 3231372The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 0:1.2.3
- 6223151The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.9
- 88931The most likely outcome came true: 13:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 3:0.3.6
- 2127522The most likely outcome came true: 20:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.7
- 6623121The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.2.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 52% will not happen in roughly 48 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →