UEFA Nations League, round 3, League B, group 3 · Thursday, 1 October, MSK · Aviva Stadium
Ireland — Austria
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In short
Final score 2:2: the model's most likely outcome, Austria to win (48%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 48% fails in about 52 matches out of 100 on average.
Austria are clear favourites: 48% against 23% for the opponent, draw 29%.
2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).
Over 2.5 goals — 44%, both teams to score — 49%.
Why
- National-team Elo: Ireland 1715, Austria 1845 — Austria clearly rated higher.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Ireland — Austria What is xG? | 0.9–1.5 | |
| Ireland not to lose | 52% | |
| Austria not to lose | 77% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 49% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 51% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 44% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 56% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Ireland
- Ireland goals
- Austria goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 27.09Kosovo3:1
- 24.09Israel3:1
- 02.07away · Spain0:3
- 28.06away · Algeria3:3
- 22.06away · Argentina0:2
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
Next matches
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- 2027532The most likely outcome did not happen: 22:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.6
- 2627472The most likely outcome came true: 22:4Final score 2:4. Model's score: 1:2.2.7
- 1423632The most likely outcome did not happen: 22:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 0:2.2.8
- 2526492The most likely outcome did not happen: 20:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:2.2.8
- 722081The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:0.2.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →