UEFA Europa League, round 3 · Thursday, 22 October, MSK
Jagiellonia Białystok — Anderlecht
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 22 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Evenly matched: Jagiellonia Białystok 38%, Anderlecht 35%, draw 26%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 58%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- League table: Jagiellonia Białystok — No. 24, 0 pts; Anderlecht — No. 21, 0 pts.
- Jagiellonia Białystok: 4 defeats in a row.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Jagiellonia Białystok — Anderlecht What is xG? | 1.4–1.4 | |
| Jagiellonia Białystok not to lose | 65% | |
| Anderlecht not to lose | 62% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
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- Handicap Jagiellonia Białystok
- Jagiellonia Białystok goals
- Anderlecht goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10Górnik Zabrze1:3
- 20.09Legia Warszawa1:3
- 16.09away · Olympiacos1:2
- 11.09away · Wisła Kraków0:2
- 06.09Śląsk Wrocław2:1
- 10.10away · Cercle Brugge2:1
- 19.09Zulte Waregem3:0
- 16.09Lyon1:2
- 11.09away · KV Mechelen1:0
- 06.09Genk0:0
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Sturm Graz | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 21, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Anderlecht | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| 22, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Lillestrøm | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| 23, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Real Sociedad | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| 24, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Jagiellonia Białystok | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
Europa League on the same day
- JuventusRennespreliminary6520141The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
- FerencvárosTorreensepreliminary5923191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.0
- Union St.GilloiseHapoel Beer Shevapreliminary7417101The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.3
- Dinamo ZagrebNEC Nijmegenpreliminary4825261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
- Sturm GrazMarseillepreliminary2826462The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
- Lech PoznańSunderlandpreliminary3526392The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.8
- OFI CreteBayer Leverkusenpreliminary916752The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:33.3
- Ararat ArmeniaAZ Alkmaarpreliminary2425522The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 38% will not happen in roughly 62 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →