Russian Cup, round 4 · Wednesday, 14 October, MSK · Solidarnost Samara Arena
Krylya Sovetov Samara — Baltika
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0:2Came true
In short
Final score 0:2: the model's most likely outcome, Baltika to win (42%), came true.
Baltika are slightly stronger: 42% against 32%, draw 27%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Baltika are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
- Baltika: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.
Facts
- Krylya Sovetov Samara: unbeaten in 5; Baltika: winless in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Krylya Sovetov Samara 0 wins, Baltika 3, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Krylya Sovetov Samara — Baltika What is xG? | 1.3–1.5 | |
| Krylya Sovetov Samara not to lose | 58% | |
| Baltika not to lose | 68% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
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- Krylya Sovetov Samara goals
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Form
- 10.10Spartak Moscow1:1
- 16.09away · Lokomotiv Moscow1:1
- 11.09Rodina2:1
- 05.09FC Krasnodar2:2
- 02.09away · Baltika0:0
- 11.10away · FK Akhmat0:0
- 16.09Zenit St. Petersburg2:3
- 12.09away · Fakel2:2
- 06.09Lokomotiv Moscow0:1
- 02.09Krylya Sovetov Samara0:0
Head to head
- 02.09.2026Baltika — Krylya Sovetov Samara0:0
- 08.08.2026Krylya Sovetov Samara — Baltika0:2
- 07.12.2025Baltika — Krylya Sovetov Samara2:0
- 09.08.2025Krylya Sovetov Samara — Baltika1:1
- 20.04.2024Baltika — Krylya Sovetov Samara2:1
Next matches
- Krylya Sovetov SamaraFakel17 October · Russian Premier League4731221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5
- BaltikaFC Rostov18 October · Russian Premier League5629151The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.2
Russian Cup on the same day
- 5424221The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.9
- 3827361The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.8
- 5923181The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.2.9
- 3827361The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.2.8
- 3727361The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- 1017732The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:33.2
- 1722602The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:32.9
- 3827361The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →