EFL Championship, round 10 · Tuesday, 13 October, MSK · The Den
Millwall — Swansea City
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
0:1Missed
In short
Final score 0:1: the model's most likely outcome, Millwall to win (49%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 49% fails in about 51 matches out of 100 on average.
Millwall are clear favourites: 49% against 24% for the opponent, draw 27%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 55%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Millwall are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
- Millwall: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Millwall — Swansea City What is xG? | 1.6–1.1 | |
| Millwall not to lose | 76% | |
| Swansea City not to lose | 51% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 50% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 50% |
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- Millwall goals
- Swansea City goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 10.10away · Preston North End1:0
- 19.09West Ham United2:2
- 15.09away · Middlesbrough2:2
- 12.09away · Blackburn Rovers1:3
- 08.09Newcastle United0:1
- 10.10Norwich City2:1
- 19.09away · Lincoln City2:1
- 12.09Burnley3:1
- 08.09away · Southampton1:3
- 05.09Wrexham0:0
Head to head
- 04.01.2026Millwall — Swansea City2:1
- 27.09.2025Swansea City — Millwall1:1
- 26.04.2025Millwall — Swansea City1:0
- 26.10.2024Swansea City — Millwall0:1
- 04.05.2024Swansea City — Millwall0:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Promotion | Swansea City | 10 | 7 | +9 | 23 |
| 2, Promotion | Middlesbrough | 10 | 6 | +6 | 21 |
| 10 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 9 | 4 | +2 | 14 |
| 11 | Millwall | 10 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 | Bristol City | 10 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
Next matches
- MillwallLincoln City17 October · Championship4729251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
- Swansea CityWest Ham United17 October · Championship3628362The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.2
Championship on the same day
- 4130301The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.4
- 5826161The most likely outcome did not happen: 12:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 2:1.2.4
- 4728261The most likely outcome came true: 15:1Final score 5:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.8
- 6322151The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:3Final score 1:3. Model's score: 1:0.3.0
- 4330271The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 2:0.2.3
- 6024161The most likely outcome came true: 14:0Final score 4:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.8
- 2128512The most likely outcome came true: 22:3Final score 2:3. Model's score: 0:1.2.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 49% will not happen in roughly 51 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →