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UEFA Nations League, round 4, League B, group 1 · Tuesday, 6 October, MSK · Barclays Hampden

Scotland — Slovenia

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Model prediction and result

1:2Missed
Scotland45%
Draw30%
Slovenia25%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:2: the model's most likely outcome, Scotland to win (45%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 45% fails in about 55 matches out of 100 on average.

Scotland are slightly stronger: 45% against 25%, draw 30%.

2.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 38%, both teams to score — 44%.

Why

  • National-team Elo: Scotland 1746, Slovenia 1690 — Scotland rated higher.
  • Scotland: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Scotland — Slovenia What is xG?1.3–0.9
Scotland not to lose75%
Slovenia not to lose55%
No draw70%
Both teams to score: yes44%
Both teams to score: no56%
Total over 2.538%
Total under 2.562%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Scotland
  • Scotland goals
  • Slovenia goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Form

Scotland

  • 03.10away · North Macedonia2:0
  • 29.09Switzerland0:3
  • 26.09away · Slovenia0:0
  • 25.06Brazil0:3
  • 20.06Morocco0:1

Slovenia

  • 03.10away · Switzerland1:2
  • 29.09North Macedonia2:0
  • 26.09Scotland0:0
  • 07.06away · Croatia1:2
  • 04.06Cyprus1:1

Head to head

  • 26.09.2026Slovenia — Scotland0:0

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Promotion to the league aboveSwitzerland440011–1+1012
2, Promotion play-offsSlovenia42115–3+27
3Scotland41123–5-24
4, Relegation play-offNorth Macedonia40040–10-100

Season 2026/27

Full table

UEFA Nations League on the same day

  • KazakhstanFaroe Islands
    XThe most likely outcome came true: XFinal score 2:2. Model's score: 1:1.2.1
  • CroatiaSpain
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:3.3.2
  • EnglandCzechia
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 3:0. Model's score: 2:0.3.3
  • SwitzerlandNorth Macedonia
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 3:0. Model's score: 3:1.3.3
  • AlbaniaSan Marino
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.3.4
  • BelarusFinland
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:2.2.3
  • MoldovaSlovakia
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:4. Model's score: 0:2.2.6
  • EstoniaIceland
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 0:0. Model's score: 0:2.2.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →