EFL Championship, round 9 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Swansea.com Stadium
Swansea City — Norwich City
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
2:1Came true
In short
Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, Swansea City to win (43%), came true.
Swansea City are slightly stronger: 43% against 28%, draw 29%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 59%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- Norwich City: 3 defeats in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Swansea City 2 wins, Norwich City 1, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Swansea City — Norwich City What is xG? | 1.5–1.2 | |
| Swansea City not to lose | 72% | |
| Norwich City not to lose | 57% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 59% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 41% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Swansea City
- Swansea City goals
- Norwich City goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 19.09away · Lincoln City2:1
- 12.09Burnley3:1
- 08.09away · Southampton1:3
- 05.09Wrexham0:0
- 01.09Watford2:0
- 20.09Bolton Wanderers3:4
- 17.09away · Manchester City0:5
- 12.09away · Middlesbrough3:4
- 09.09Birmingham City2:1
- 05.09away · Sheffield United3:1
Head to head
- 25.04.2026Norwich City — Swansea City1:1
- 25.10.2025Swansea City — Norwich City2:1
- 25.01.2025Norwich City — Swansea City5:1
- 14.09.2024Swansea City — Norwich City1:0
- 27.04.2024Norwich City — Swansea City2:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Promotion | Swansea City | 10 | 7 | +9 | 23 |
| 2, Promotion | Middlesbrough | 10 | 6 | +6 | 21 |
| 18 | Cardiff City | 10 | 2 | +1 | 10 |
| 19 | Norwich City | 9 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 20 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
Next matches
- MillwallSwansea City13 October · Championship4927241The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.7
- Norwich CitySouthampton14 October · Championship3828351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
Championship on the same day
- 353134XThe most likely outcome came true: X1:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:1, exactly right.2.2
- 383032XThe most likely outcome did not happen: X0:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 0:0.2.3
- 4728251The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.8
- 4428281The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 2:0.2.7
- 4428281The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:0.2.6
- 4627271The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:0, exactly right.2.9
- 3129402The most likely outcome came true: 20:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 0:1, exactly right.2.8
- 4230291The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →