UEFA Nations League, round 2, League A, group 1 · Monday, 28 September, MSK · Matlı Stadyumu Atatürk Spor Kompleksi
Turkiye — Italy
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
1:4Came true
In short
Final score 1:4: the model's most likely outcome, Italy to win (44%), came true.
Italy are slightly stronger: 44% against 30%, draw 26%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.0 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.
Over 2.5 goals — 58%, both teams to score — 61%.
Why
- National-team Elo: Turkiye 1839, Italy 1837 — the teams are almost level on rating.
- Turkiye: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Turkiye — Italy What is xG? | 1.3–1.7 | |
| Turkiye not to lose | 56% | |
| Italy not to lose | 70% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 61% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 39% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 58% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 42% |
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Form
- 25.09Belgium0:2
- 07.06away · Greece1:0
- 03.06away · Luxembourg1:0
- 31.03away · Bosnia and Herzegovina1:1
- 26.03Northern Ireland2:0
Head to head
- 04.06.2024Italy — Turkiye0:0
- 29.03.2022Turkiye — Italy2:3
- 11.06.2021Turkiye — Italy0:3
Table
Next matches
- BelgiumTurkiye2 October · UEFA Nations League6520151The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 2:1.3.5
- FranceItaly2 October · UEFA Nations League5923181The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:1.3.1
UEFA Nations League on the same day
- 2727462The most likely outcome did not happen: 20:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:2.2.8
- 3127432The most likely outcome came true: 22:3Final score 2:3. Model's score: 1:2.2.9
- 3629351The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.6
- 2926442The most likely outcome came true: 20:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 1:2.3.0
- 2931402The most likely outcome did not happen: 20:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 0:1.2.3
- 4728251The most likely outcome did not happen: 12:4Final score 2:4. Model's score: 1:0.2.5
- 4525291The most likely outcome came true: 13:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 2:1.3.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →