UEFA Nations League, round 2, League B, group 2 · Monday, 28 September, MSK · Clearer Twist National Stadium at Windsor Park
Northern Ireland — Hungary
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In short
Final score 0:0: the model's most likely outcome, Hungary to win (40%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 40% fails in about 60 matches out of 100 on average.
Hungary are slightly stronger: 40% against 29%, draw 31%.
2.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).
Over 2.5 goals — 40%, both teams to score — 47%.
Why
- National-team Elo: Northern Ireland 1633, Hungary 1688 — Hungary rated higher.
- Northern Ireland: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Northern Ireland — Hungary What is xG? | 1.0–1.3 | |
| Northern Ireland not to lose | 60% | |
| Hungary not to lose | 71% | |
| No draw | 69% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 47% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 53% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 40% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 60% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Northern Ireland
- Northern Ireland goals
- Hungary goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 25.09away · Georgia1:0
- 08.06away · France1:3
- 04.06Guinea1:0
- 31.03away · Wales1:1
- 26.03away · Italy0:2
Head to head
- 29.03.2022Northern Ireland — Hungary0:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Promotion to the league above | Northern Ireland | 4 | 2 | +4 | 8 |
| 2, Promotion play-offs | Hungary | 4 | 2 | +1 | 7 |
| 3 | Ukraine | 4 | 1 | -3 | 4 |
| 4, Relegation play-off | Georgia | 4 | 0 | -2 | 2 |
Next matches
- UkraineNorthern Ireland2 October · UEFA Nations League4630241The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:3Final score 0:3. Model's score: 1:0.2.3
- HungaryGeorgia2 October · UEFA Nations League4628261The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:0, exactly right.2.7
UEFA Nations League on the same day
- 2727462The most likely outcome did not happen: 20:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:2.2.8
- 3127432The most likely outcome came true: 22:3Final score 2:3. Model's score: 1:2.2.9
- 3629351The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.6
- 2926442The most likely outcome came true: 20:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 1:2.3.0
- 3026442The most likely outcome came true: 21:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 1:2.3.0
- 4728251The most likely outcome did not happen: 12:4Final score 2:4. Model's score: 1:0.2.5
- 4525291The most likely outcome came true: 13:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 2:1.3.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →