UEFA Nations League, round 2, League B, group 2 · Monday, 28 September, MSK · Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena
Georgia — Ukraine
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In short
Final score 0:0: the model's most likely outcome, Ukraine to win (46%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 46% fails in about 54 matches out of 100 on average.
Ukraine are slightly stronger: 46% against 27%, draw 27%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 2.8 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- National-team Elo: Georgia 1626, Ukraine 1802 — Ukraine clearly rated higher.
- Georgia: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Georgia — Ukraine What is xG? | 1.2–1.6 | |
| Georgia not to lose | 54% | |
| Ukraine not to lose | 73% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Georgia
- Georgia goals
- Ukraine goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
Head to head
- 16.11.2024Georgia — Ukraine1:1
- 11.10.2024Ukraine — Georgia1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Promotion to the league above | Northern Ireland | 4 | 2 | +4 | 8 |
| 2, Promotion play-offs | Hungary | 4 | 2 | +1 | 7 |
| 3 | Ukraine | 4 | 1 | -3 | 4 |
| 4, Relegation play-off | Georgia | 4 | 0 | -2 | 2 |
Next matches
- HungaryGeorgia2 October · UEFA Nations League4628261The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:0, exactly right.2.7
- UkraineNorthern Ireland2 October · UEFA Nations League4630241The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:3Final score 0:3. Model's score: 1:0.2.3
UEFA Nations League on the same day
- 3127432The most likely outcome came true: 22:3Final score 2:3. Model's score: 1:2.2.9
- 3629351The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.6
- 2926442The most likely outcome came true: 20:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 1:2.3.0
- 3026442The most likely outcome came true: 21:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 1:2.3.0
- 2931402The most likely outcome did not happen: 20:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 0:1.2.3
- 4728251The most likely outcome did not happen: 12:4Final score 2:4. Model's score: 1:0.2.5
- 4525291The most likely outcome came true: 13:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 2:1.3.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →